Vi har uppdaterat våra prognoser för H&M på kort och medellång sikt mot bakgrund av potentiella tullar, förväntningar om lägre ekonomisk tillväxt och ökande osäkerhet. Enligt vår uppfattning är de kortsiktiga multiplarna som återspeglar detta inte särskilt attraktiva.

H&M's Q1 earnings were weaker than expected, and we anticipate continued margin headwinds in Q2. However, we foresee revenue growth and a shift from gross margin headwinds to tailwinds starting in H2’25, leading to continued sales and margin improvements throughout 2026-27. We maintain our view that earnings growth and dividends offer a reasonable expected return and, therefore, reiterate our Accumulate recommendation with a slightly lowered target price of SEK 145 per share (previously SEK 150), reflecting lower short-term estimates.

H&M har idag publicerat sin Q1 rapport, där marginalen kom in lägre än väntat men VD Daniel Ervér är positiv till en vändning. Hur skulle analytiker Lucas sammanfatta Q1 rapporten, hur ska man tolka bruttomarginalen, och vad anser Lucas är avgörande för H&M framåt?

We believe that the headwinds to gross margins, including price investments, increased markdowns, and negative impacts from external factors, have been stronger than earlier anticipated in H&M’s Q1 (Dec-Feb). As a result, we have lowered our earnings estimates. However, we still see earnings growth and dividends offering a good expected return, which, coupled with the declining valuation since our last research update (share price -9%), keeps the risk/reward ratio on the right side. Consequently, we reiterate our Accumulate recommendation but lower our target price to SEK 150 per share (prev. SEK 160) due to lower estimates.

H&M's Q4 results beat our forecasts thanks to a strong gross margin. However, we kept our estimates largely intact and continue to see sales and margin improvement in 2025-26. We see earnings growth and dividends offering a reasonable expected return.